Key points:
Basic food prices remain high at the peak of the lean season
Beans, sugar, salt and vegetable oil are more expensive than last year
About 30 percent of traders in Hhohho and Shiselweni report difficult road conditions
Seasonal Outlook
An improved harvest is expected in the South African Development Community (SADC) region, due to the increased good rains that happened during the current production season. Regional maize prices are also forecast to be low because the price observed in December 2016 was 24 percent lower than the high reached in February 2016 when it was ZAR 5,000/MT (USD 320)(SAFEX Prices). Nevertheless, commodity prices are still relatively high in Swaziland. The El Nino-induced drought had a negative effect on the overall food commodity availability and prices. This was compounded by inflation which averaged at 7.8 percent for 2016. According to the Swazi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (VAC) report 2016, the total population that will require livelihood support over the consumption period October 2016 – February 2017 is estimated at 638,251. This represents the rural population in Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Phases 2 (Stressed), 3 (Crisis) and 4 (Emergency). The high food prices have resulted in higher vulnerability to food insecurity as the peak of the lean season is nearing. However, the rainfall forecasts for the 2016/17 cropping season (October-June) indicate an higher likelihood of normal to above-average rainfall conditions. This means that early production prospects for the 2017 crop are generally favourable. However, the agricultural productive capacity of farming households is expected to be lower than normal, particularly regarding seed supplies as a result of the reduced 2016 crop.